CALGARY – Calgary’s economy will rebound nicely this year and go on to lead the country starting in 2011, the Conference Board of Canada said Wednesday.

In its annual outlook for the cities, the board forecast Calgary’s economy will grow three per cent this year. That comes after a 2.3 per cent decline in 2009, the first drop in two decades.

“Fortunately, the initial stages of an economic recovery are starting to take hold,” the board said in its winter outlook.

“Both housing demand and prices are on the rebound, whil overall consumer confidence is gaining some upward momentum.”

Retail sales are expected to jump 4.2 per cent this year, the forecast said.

In 2010, Calgary’s economic growth will put it in the middle of the pack at 10th place. Vancouver is expected to lead the group at 4.5 per cent, boosted by the Olympic Games that begin next month.

A full recovery in the oilpatch should help propel Calgary’s economic growth to 4.4 per cent in 2010, the strongest among the provinces, the report noted.

It’s not too late to renovate and get the Home Renovation Tax Credit (HRTC) … if you don’t mind long lines at your local home-improvement store. But you only have exactly one week to do so.

Know What Qualifies (and What Doesn’t)

It might be a good idea to check out all the details at the Canada Revenue Agency website. (Apparently, the Post Office is also handing out the Canada Revenue Agency General Income Tax and Benefit Guide for 2009.)

Basically, the rule of thumb is anything that stays with your property counts for the HRTC. Here are a few items that do qualify that you may not have thought of:

• A new hot water tank

• Home security system

• Landscaping

• Blinds or shutters 

• Paint (interior and exterior)

• Re-shingling a roof

• Building a shed or fence

Even if you spend as little as $1,000 (but no less) you can get 15% off in tax credits when you file; just be sure you keep all your receipts.

There are rumblings about the federal government extending the deadline for the HRTC – or adding a new one later in 2010 but given how transient ruling governments can be (especially in a minority government!) it might be best to race towards this month’s deadline since it is a sure thing (even if you live in a condo).

And remember, you can “double-dip” on your renovation spendings if the products and/or services relate to energy-efficiency, thus qualifying for the HRTC and ecoEnergy Retrofit grants from Natural Resources Canada (and matched by your province in most cases).

How is your renovation spending going? Are you trying to get government money for the HRTC tax credit and/or ecoEnergy retrofit grant money?

For More information Please call the Home Sweet Home Team

CALGARY – In two years, Calgary’s resale real estate market has gone from “sizzle to fizzle to simmer,” incoming Calgary Real Estate Board president Diane Scott said Wednesday.

Aff ordability and low interest rates will keep the pot slowly boiling this year, creating modest growth in sales and prices, she predicted as the board hosted its annual forecast conference.

A panel of economists mostly concurred with the board’s projection of a continuation of the gradual recovery experienced in the second half of 2009, faltering later this year as low interest rates rise to more normal levels.

Scott told about 1,000 real estate agents in attendance a recovery in Calgary’s market is highly dependent on prices for oil and gas.

“Calgary and Alberta remain tied to global energy markets and, ultimately, the outlook for oil and gas will play a big role in employment and migration to Calgary,” she said. “The good news is we have the energy to recover.

“The road will be a little bumpy, but there is light on the horizon.”

The board estimates Calgary-region single-family home sales will climb to 17,000 from 14,440 in 2009 and 7,000 condominium units will change hands, versus 6,328 last year.

In 2007, single-family sales added up to 18,438 and there were 8,236 condos sold. In 2008, the numbers were 13,455 and 5,661, respectively, with the single-family number the lowest since 1996.

The board predicts the average price for a single-family home in Calgary in 2010 will jump six per cent to $470,000 from $442,327 last year and the average condo price will rise 4.3 per cent to $296,000 from $283,734 in 2009.

The average single-family home price peaked at $505,920 in July 2007 and condo prices hit a record $332,237 in May 2007.

Surrounding towns are expected to experience 14 per cent higher sales and 3.2 per cent growth in average prices.

The downtown apartment condo market is expected to be particularly slow this year, while smaller, single-family homes and lower-priced segments will lead in sales and price growth.

Scott noted that younger people buying starter homes have fuelled the market’s recovery so far. Better afford-ability will help encourage 15,000 people to relocate to Calgary this year, the board predicts.

The low level of listings in the market at year-end is expected to grow throughout 2010, giving buyers more options.

“We will not likely tip to a seller’s market until the end of 2010 and into 2011,” said Scott, describing the current market as “balanced.”

Panellist Adam Legge, chief economist for Calgary Economic Development, said he doesn’t think the pace of the recovery in the city in the second half of 2009 is sustainable because the recovery in the larger economy is largely based on stimulus spending and inventory replacement.

He said news Tuesday that the ConocoPhillips and Total plan to expand production at the Surmont in situ oilsands discovery near Fort McMurray, while encouraging, won’t necessarily help create jobs and confidence in Calgary.

“We’re going to see probably a number of years of very, very tepid growth in Calgary,” he said. “There’s not going to be any zooming to the nearly eight per cent GDP growth we saw in 2006.”

Warren Jestin, chief economist for Scotiabank, said he’s not a “double-dipper” — a proponent of a quick return to recession — but he does predict better-than-expected growth in the national economy in early 2010 to slow down in the second half of the year as the Bank of Canada raises its trendsetting interest rate by as much as 200 basis points.

He said the economy, after bumping along the bottom in the first half of 2009, is in a “good news” phase now, but that’s only because there’s less frequent bad news (such as Wednesday’s stock market sell-off).

Two real estate agents questioned panellist Richard Cho, Calgary market analyst for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., about whether the federal government will increase the minimum allowable down payment for first-time homebuyers above the existing five per cent.

Cho said the government is looking at it as an option, to prevent homebuyers from taking on too much debt, but added that the change wouldn’t have a great impact on the housing market because not many people use it.

dhealing@theherald. canwest.com

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There’s little mystery why Canada’s housing market has seen a rebound in sales this spring.

“Record-low mortgage rates have unleashed pent-up demand that accumulated last year when previously soaring prices closed the door on first-time buyers,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a research report released Friday.

“After a harsh winter, spring has come surprisingly early to Canada’s housing market. Sales have rebounded from a lengthy slumber and prices have firmed,” he said.

“While it’s doubtful that the housing train has left the station without a recovery on board, the data support our long-held view that the Canadian market is merely correcting, not busting.”

In Calgary last month, historic low mortgage rates combined with less expensive homes compared with a year ago sparked activity in the local real estate market. May witnessed the first year-over-year gain in single-family MLS sales since September and since April 2007 for condos.

“We need to be cautious about declaring a firm bottom is at hand, but the improvement in recent months is an encouraging shift,” said Bonnie Wegerich, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, when the May numbers were released. “All signs indicate we are moving to a balanced and stable market. Consumer confidence is improving, prices are holding steady and inventory is trending downward.

“I think some buyers are trying to predict the bottom of the market. The reality is if you spend too much time trying to anticipate the bottom, you miss out on choice and selection.”

There were 1,584 single-family home sales last month, up 15.8 per cent from May 2008, while the condo market saw 653 sales, representing a 13.2 per cent hike from a year ago.

The average sale price for a single family home in May was $436,427, while for a condo it was $275,212, compared with $426,311 for a singlefamily home and$277,491 for a condo in April.

The prices are off from year-ago levels when the average was$479,564 for single-family homes and $311,816 for condos. Single-family prices are off by nine per cent, while condo prices are down by nearly 12 per cent from last year.

At the national level, Guatieri said despite massive job losses, demand has firmed for housing, even in Ontario and British Columbia and, to a lesser extent, in “boom-bust” Alberta.

“The surprising upturn in sales, coupled with fewer listings, has tilted the market back towards balance from the buyers’ haven of last year,” he said.

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary HeraldJune 13, 2009

The latest round of statistics released from the Calgary Real Estate Board show May was another strong month in our city.

Single-family home sales in metro Calgary were up 23% from April 2009, according to the MLS sales activity, with 1,584 properties exchanging hands.

Better yet, May 2009 single-family homes sales were an increase of 16% from May 2008.

“We are seeing the first year-over-year gain in single family homes sales since last September,” says Bonnie Wegerich, President of the Calgary Real Estate Board. “A pent up demand has been building — with many first-time home buyers now taking advantage of affordable prices, record low interest rates and federal government housing incentives.”

And first time buyers are coming out in droves. In the Calgary metro area, homes priced at $400,000 or less accounted for nearly 70% of all home re-sales in the month of May.

While reduced interest rates make payments an easier pill to swallow for those making the transition from tenant to homeowner, lower house prices are assisting those who might have previously been priced out of the market as well.

The average price of a single family home in metro Calgary in May 2009 was $436,427, an increase of 2% from April pricing, but a substantial 9% decrease from May 2008’s average house price of $479,564.

The increased market activity is also lowering the gap between supply and demand, which was driving prices down at the end of last year.

“Since December we have seen five consecutive months of increases in home sales, while our inventory continues to trend lower. The gap has narrowed and prices are stabilizing” Wegerich says.

Wegerich went on to say that “all signs indicated we are moving to a balanced and stable market. Consumer confidence is improving, prices are holding steady and inventory is trending downward.”

While inventory is heading down fixed interest rates took a jump recently due to increasing pressure from the raising bond rates. Some lenders increased rates as much as 30 points in one day with hints of additional increases on the horizon.

For those that have been sitting on the fence waiting to take advantage of the current market conditions the window of opportunity may be starting to close on historic low interest rates.

Prospective buyers could protect themselves by securing a pre-approval rate hold, typically available with most lenders for 90 — 120 days, or by ensuring that any pre-approval already in place does not lapse.

It is important to recognize that if you do have a pre-approval in place which is allowed to expire, the slightly increased interest rates available today could lower your maximum purchase price. This is because higher interest rates drive up monthly payments, which translates into a larger payment to factor into your total debt ratio.

Contact an experienced mortgage expert today to determine your best course of action, ensuring you are positioned to take advantage of all the market conditions available to those willing to take action right now, including low interest rates. Nothing can last forever.

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For more information or to book a showing call the Home Sweet Home Team at 403-524-6926

MLS® sales activity of single family Calgary metro homes was 1,290 in the month of April 2009, showing an increase of 19% from 1,086 sales in March 2009, according to figures released by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).

This was a decrease of 5% from April 2008, when single family home sales were 1,363.

The number of condominium sales for the month of April 2009 was 579, an increase of 30% from the 446 condominium transactions recorded in March 2009, and a decrease of 0.3% from April 2008, when 581 condominiums changed hands.

“Spring is giving new life to the residential real estate market,” said Calgary Real Estate Board President, Bonnie Wegerich. “Affordable pricing and low interest rates are drawing buyers back to the market.”

She added that particularly, we are finding more and more first time homebuyers taking advantage of great inventory and very low interest rates.

“We expect spring sales activity will also get a boost from the federal government incentives announced in the last budget, including the increase in the maximum withdrawal allowed under the Home Buyers’ Plan and the First Time Buyer Tax Credit,” added Wegerich.

The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in April 2009 was $426,311, showing an increase of 1% from March 2009, when the average price was $420,354, and showing a decrease of 10% from April 2008, when the average price was $474,564.

The average price of a Calgary metro condominium was $277,953, showing a 2% decrease from March 2009, when the average price was $284,056, and a decrease of 11% over last year, when the average price was $312,586.

Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

“The average price for home sales remains below levels reached one year earlier, but year-over-year declines are contracting,” said Wegerich. “Our inventory also continued to decrease in April, which is helping to firm up the balance of supply and demand,” added Wegerich.

Single family Calgary metro new listings added for the month of April totaled 2,010, down just 1% from the 2,023 new listings added in March 2009, and showing a decrease of 40% from April 2008, when 3,377 new listings came to the market.

Calgary metro condominium new listings added in April 2009 were 967, up 7% from March 2009, when the MLS® saw 903 condo listings coming to the market. This is a decrease of 35 per cent from April 2008, when condominium listings were 1,493.

The median price of a single family Calgary metro home in April 2009 was $380,000, showing an increase of 1% from March 2009, when the median price was 375,000, and down 10% from April 2008, when the median price was $420,000.

The median price of a condominium in April 2009 was $251,000, down 3% from March 2009, when the median was $260,000, and down 13% from April 2008, when the median price was $290,000.

All Calgary metro MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary’s city limits.

The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time.

During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.

“Undoubtedly this market has been challenging for both buyers and sellers, but the improvement in recent months is an encouraging sign,” said Wegerich. “There’s more confidence in the housing market today than at the end of 2008. Prices are stabilizing, inventory is declining and the number of new listings is leveling–these are all signs that a balanced market is on the horizon.