Calgary will once again become Canada’s fastest growing metropolitan area over the next two years, said the Conference Board of Canada.
In its Metropolitan Outlook Winter 2011, the reporter stated “the continued recovery in the energy sector will boost economic growth by 3.7 per cent in 2011 and above four per cent the following year, placing Calgary at the top of the growth leaderboard in 2012.”
Calgary mortgage broker Taz Rajan has already seen this rebound occurring from her own experience with a 30 per cent increase in mortgage business in 2011 over 2010.
“I expect to see a slow and steady growth in mortgage business over the next two years,” Rajan told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “I agree that growth in GDP and net migration to Alberta will help the province’s real estate market, and that 2011 and 2012 will be slightly better years for mortgage business than 2009 and 2010. I don’t see any dramatic increases due to the balancing out of strong GDP and migration versus the withdrawal of government stimulus, increased rates and new mortgage guidelines.”
Meanwhile, most of the other 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) will be weighed down as the nation’s economic recovery slows. Only Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, London and Sherbrooke anticipate higher real gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year compared to 2010.
“Most Canadian cities rebounded well from the recession,” said Mario Lefebvre, director of Centre for Municipal Studies. “This year, however, a weaker domestic economy, winding down of federal and provincial government stimulus measures, and uncertain economic conditions in the United States will result in stable or lower growth in a majority of cities.”
In 2011, Windsor is expected to have the fastest growing economy with GDP rising 3.9 per cent. Regina’s GDP will grow by 3.5 per cent; Saskatoon by 3.4 per cent and Edmonton by 2.6 per cent.